Weak Signals + Wild Cards: Agricultural Flows as Urbanization in the Canadian Prairies

Regional climate is one of the most important factors in determining a region’s agricultural productivity. It directly impacts plant growth requirements for water availability, daylight hours and length of growing seasons. Given the inherent link between climate and agricultural productivity, global trends in agriculture are expected to be altered by climate change. [1] While much of the world is expected to have a reduction in productivity, northern regions such as Canada may have improved agricultural productivity according to current climate models. [2] This increase in agricultural potential will lead to large scale urbanization of previously untouched landscapes through the addition of support infrastructure: transportation routes, irrigation systems, etc. And as economic production expands northward, urban development will follow. This trend has begun in provinces like Alberta. [3] This diversification may provide a new economic pathway for some Canadians but the impending expansion of arable land, and how and which agricultural production landscapes are developed may exacerbate ecological issues and increase greenhouse gases. [4] Understanding the form and pattern of projected urbanization in the region will be key to inform interdisciplinary policies that ensure long-term resilience in agriculture. [5,6] This project is examining current agricultural activity in the Canadian prairies and—through a synthesis of projected climate mapping models and GIS data—will investigate how new agricultural production or material “flows” might influence and impact urbanization in the region. This work will support the identification of pathways towards economic continuity and environmental sustainability in the region. It will reimagine a resilient future that works with natural resources and supports the urbanization of cities and landscapes.

1. Anwar, M. R., Liu, D. L., Macadam, I., & Kelly, G. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change: A review. Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 113 (1), 225–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0780-1

2. Qian, B., Zhang, X., Smith, W., Grant, B., Jing, Q., Cannon, A. J., Neilsen, D., McConkey, B., Li, G., Bonsal, B., Wan, H., Xue, L., & Zhao, J. (2019). Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C. Environmental Research Letters , 14 (7), 074005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb

3. Ruan, X., Qiu, F., & Dyck, M. (2016). The effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on land-use changes: A study of Alberta, Canada. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 188 (8), 446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-016-5450-9

4. Gomez-Zavaglia, A., Mejuto, J. C., & Simal-Gandara, J. (2020). Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems. Food Research International, 134 , 109256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109256

5. Bizikova, L., Larkin, P., Mitchell, S., & Waldick, R. (2019). An indicator set to track resilience to climate change in agriculture: A policy-maker’s perspective. Land Use Policy , 82 , 444–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.11.057

6. Kulshreshtha, S. (2019). Resiliency of Prairie Agriculture to Climate Change. Climate Change and Agriculture . https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.87098